Update: at almost the same time this article went to digital print, the CBO released its estimates on the effect the $15 min wage would have. In a nutshell:
- The cumulative budget deficit over the 2021–2031 period would increase by $54 billion
- From 2021 to 2031, the cumulative pay of affected people would increase, on net, by $333 billion—an increased labor cost for firms considerably larger than the net effect on the budget deficit during that period.
- That net increase would result from higher pay ($509 billion) for people who were employed at higher hourly wages under the bill, offset by lower pay ($175 billion) because of reduced employment under the bill.
- Employment would be reduced by 1.4 million workers, or 0.9 percent
- The number of people in poverty would be reduced by 0.9 million